Market Commentary

Weekly Recap

November 3, 2014

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  • The NYMEX finished its decline on Monday in the mid-upper $3.50 range and since then has rebounded with the release of some bullish winter weather forecasts. The prompt month finished the week up a quarter, and at the time of writing it is fighting to break through $4.00.
  • The Nov-14 contract expired on Wednesday at $3.728. This is the cheapest contract expiration since one year ago when Nov-13 expired at $3.497.
  • November weather forecasts have had a big turnaround in the past week. What was originally looking to be a warm November has now been split down the middle with the eastern part of the country expecting cool weather and the west sticking with the warmer forecast.
  • Thursday brought news of an 87 BCF injection into storage. While this number was larger than the 5-year average, it was still within expectations and the market continued to focus on bullish weather forecasts.