Market Commentary

Weekly Recap

January 13, 2015

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  • The recent downward trend on the NYMEX natural gas market slowed down last week as traders tested pricing in the $2.80’s. While the market ultimately failed to stay below $2.90 at week’s end, as of Monday, Jan 12 at noon, the prompt month has fallen over 14 cents and is fighting to break below $2.80.
  • The winter 2015-2016 average moved a bit more than the 12 month average last week. A drop of 6.7 cents or 1.9% left the strip at $3.38 at week’s end.
  • The storage graph to the right has been reset as we now begin tracking 2015 inventory levels. This year’s updates will be tracked in blue as noted in the legend below the graph. While just a small blip at this point, it is already evident how much of a difference one year can make. Coming out of a winter that contained multiple record breaking withdrawals, strong production and persistently bearish weather has put inventories right back on pace with their historical averages.
  • NOAA’s 6-10 day outlook looks drastically different than it did one week ago. While it looked like winter might have finally been taking root in the consuming region of the northeast, forecasts have flipped again and above average temperatures have now taken over with the entire country expecting warmer than normal weather.
  • Power prices have been following natural gas with dips in pricing across the board. While the natural gas market seemed to have slowed down in its decline last week, power was still falling at a healthy rate with markets dropping between 2-6%.