Market Commentary

Weekly Recap

February 3, 2015

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  • Super Bowl XLIX is now in the record books and so is the February 2015 contract expiration. Feb-15 expired on Wednesday at $2.866 marking the first contract expiration under $3.00 since September 2012 expired at $2.634.
  • After testing $3.00, the NYMEX natural gas market started a bearish trend on Wednesday. The prompt month dropped al-most 10% on the week, just under 30 cents, and the 12 month average fell almost 6%.
  • The winter 2015-2016 average shed 5.5% last week. The strip lost 18.6 cents on the week, dropping from $3.374 to $3.188.
  • Last week’s storage report brought news of an underwhelming withdrawal of just 94 BCF. This report was well below expectations which were in the 105-115 range. To bring some perspective, last year’s withdrawal for the same week was 219 BCF. This withdrawal shrinks the current deficit to the 5 year average to under 100 BCF and, given current conditions, it is feasible for the storage deficit to become a storage surplus in the coming weeks.
  • The nation continues to be split down the middle as forecasts of warming in the west meet forecasts of cooling in the east. This week the warming side has gained some ground compared to last week, but it is important to note that one of the nation’s primary consuming regions in the Northeast remains below normal in the forecasts.
  • Power pricing was down between 3-4% in most markets last week. The one exception was PA which stayed relatively flat.