October 20, 2014
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- The NYMEX natural gas market tested the $3.80 price point for the bulk of the week but ultimately failed to break through. The prompt month finished the week down 9.3 cents and as this commentary is being written it has dropped an additional 8.5 cents.
- Technical analysts put the current trading range between $3.62 and $3.83. We will see in the coming week if the prompt month continues its bearish move toward the low end of this range or if the market will rally back near $3.83.
- Frontier is predicting a warmer-than-normal November as seen below. Additionally, the NOAA 6-10 Day Forecast shows warming in all areas except the east coast.
- An injection into storage of 94 BCF was just above expectations. The past 5 injections have beaten the 5-year average by a little over 25% on average. If this pace keeps up, coupled with current Oct-Nov forecasts, we should be over 3.6 TCF in storage before the withdrawal season begins.