Market Commentary

Weekly Recap

December 15, 2014

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  • The NYMEX natural gas market kicked off the week with a substantial dip as the prompt month shed over 20 cents on Monday. The rest of the week stayed relatively flat until Friday, when forecasts of warming weakened in intensity causing the market to gain back everything it had lost on the week. Both the prompt month and the 12 month average ended the week within a penny of where they started.
  • The winter 2015-2016 average has stayed just as stable as the front end of the strip. The winter 15-16 strip started the week at $3.888 and settled Friday at $3.895, a difference of less than a penny to follow suit with the prompt month and 12 month average.
  • Power prices broke away just slightly from their close following of natural gas last week with most markets gaining a little over 1% on the week.
  • Thursday’s storage report announced a withdrawal of 51 BCF. Despite this number being slightly higher than expectations, the bulls did not receive enough support to continue the upward movement from the previous two days and the prompt month fell back into the $3.60s.
  • This week’s forecast is a little less intimidating than forecasts have been as of late. While not a whole lot of cold is present on the map, much more of the country is now anticipating normal winter weather which at this time of year still equates to substantial demand. Also of note is that the warmer weather that persists on the map is not nearly as extreme as it has been in recent weeks.