Market Commentary

Weekly Recap

February 16, 2015

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  • For the first time in a while we witnessed some bullishness in the NYMEX natural gas market. Aside from Thursday, the market spent the entire week in an upward trend. The prompt month March 2015 contract gained 22.5 cents on the week to settle above $2.80 and the 12 month average was able to break above $3.00 after failing to do so in the week prior.
  • The winter 2015-2016 average saw some upward movement as well. After a couple of weeks trading in the $3.10’s, the strip gained almost 10 cents to finish the week at $3.235, an increase of about 3%.
  • The trend of lackluster withdrawals continued when a 160 BCF withdrawal was announced during Thursday’s storage report. This was on the low end of expectations and the market responded with a slight dip in trading, but the market gained back everything it had lost by end of trading Friday. The deficit to the 5 year average now sits at just 11 BCF.
  • Colder than normal weather continues to be the story in the eastern half of the country with a pocket of deep cooling sitting over the major consuming region of the northeast. NOAA is predicting that the warm temperatures in the west will lose even more ground as Texas and other central states are now covered in blue on the 6-10 day forecast below.
  •  Power prices are sticking with natural gas trends as the bullish movement in the NYMEX has carried over to the power indices as well. Most markets saw an increase of over 4% last week with NYC nearing 7%.