Market Commentary

Weekly Recap

August 18, 2014

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  • Early in the week the NYMEX natural gas market tested the $4.00 mark, but bearish weather forecasts and the anticipation of Thursday’s storage report kept the market from breaking through. The prompt month dropped 14 cents on Wednesday and finished the week at $3.776.
  • An injection of 78 BCF into storage was slightly below expectations and the market reacted with a modest increase on Thursday.
  • The storage deficit to the 5 year average is now down to 575 BCF and with over two months left in the injection season we are on pace to start the winter with well above 3 TCF in natural gas storage.
  • NOAA’s 6-10 day forecast shown below is predicting some warming in many regions of the country. While long term summer forecasts remain mild, it is important to note that coal-to-gas switching can still play a role in market prices if demand increases.