Market Commentary

Weekly Recap

February 9, 2015

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  • This week’s NYMEX natural gas market update looks a lot like last week’s. Early in the week the NYMEX attempted to rally with the 12 month average almost hitting $3.00, but again sup-port was simply not there and the market spent the rest of the week in a familiar bearish trend. The prompt month dropped 4.2% to finish the week below $2.60.
  • After testing $3.00, the NYMEX natural gas market started a bearish trend on Wednesday. The prompt month dropped almost 10% on the week, just under 30 cents, and the 12 month average fell almost 6%.
  • The winter 2015-2016 average was not quite as volatile as front end trading last week. This strip fell just under a nickel, or 1.5%, on the week.
  • Last week’s withdrawal of 115 BCF was just shy of expectations. The storage deficit is quickly becoming non-existent with just 29 BCF between current inventories and the EIA 5 year average.
  • The East-West split in the NOAA 6-10 day outlook is still apparent this week with some significant cooling in the forecast for the eastern part of the country. Even with this increase in ex-pected demand the NYMEX is not currently reacting with strong bullishness. As of noon on Monday, February 9th, the prompt month is only up 1.8 cents and is hesitant to break through $2.60.
  • Power had a relatively quiet week with most markets dropping less that 0.5% on the 12 month average. NYC was the exception dropping 1.6% on the week.